AAA: 72.2 Million Americans Expected to Travel over July 4th Week – Slightly Higher than 2025

 

– AAA projects 72.2 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home for Independence Day between Saturday, June 27 and Sunday, July 5. This year’s domestic travel forecast surpasses last year’s record of 71.8 million travelers, but the increase (0.5%) is smaller than recent year-over-year gains. The number of travelers driving and flying to their destinations is relatively flat compared to last year, while travel by other modes, including cruises, is the category seeing the biggest increase.

“For many Americans, July 4th travel is a longstanding tradition, and that tradition remains strong this year even as prices rise for most modes of transportation,” said Jana Tidwell, manager of public and government affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic. “Whether people are hitting the road, boarding a flight, or taking a cruise, travelers continue to make summer holiday getaways a priority.”

Year-over-year increases based on bookings through AAA. *Airline flights purchased before the start of the Iran Conflict were cheaper than at this time a year ago. Tickets purchased more recently are likely higher due to increased demand and jet fuel costs, with travelers seeing ticket price increases of 16-17% this summer according to industry estimates.

Independence Day Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 61.4 million people will travel by car over July 4^th week, nearly the same number as last year when 61.3 million travelers took road trips. 85% of Americans traveling for Independence Day are expected to drive to their destinations, despite gas prices reaching four-year highs. Last year, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $3.15. This year, prices are more than a dollar higher but remain lower than 2022, when the national average was $4.80 on Independence Day. Despite higher gas prices, filling up the tank during a road trip is still cheaper than purchasing flights for many travelers, especially for families with kids.

For travelers renting cars over July 4^th, AAA car rental partner Hertz expects Thursday, July 2 to be the busiest pickup day. Hertz says Orlando, Denver, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York City are the cities with the highest demand based on advanced bookings. According to AAA booking data, domestic car rentals are 10% more expensive this holiday week compared to last year.

By Air: AAA projects 5.85 million travelers will take domestic flights over July 4^th week, a 0.2% increase over last year. Air travelers make up 8% of the share of holiday travelers. According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their Independence Day trips, roundtrip domestic flights to top destinations like Chicago and Denver are 5% more expensive. Domestic flights overall are averaging about $830 a ticket.

By Other Modes: Travel by other modes is seeing the biggest year-over-year growth compared to car and air travel. AAA projects 4.93 million Americans will take buses, trains, and cruises over Independence Day week, a 5.3% increase from last year. This year is also expected to surpass 2019’s figure of 4.79 million travelers, due in large part to the post-COVID cruising boom. Travelers are drawn to cruise vacations because they know how much the trip will cost upfront, and the ship offers all-inclusive dining, various entertainment options, and multiple destinations.

AAA’s Top Independence Day Destinations

AAA members are heading to major U.S. cities over July 4^th week and flying internationally to Canada and Europe. Alaska cruises are in peak season, that’s why Seattle, Anchorage, and Fairbanks are all top domestic destinations. Independence Day fireworks and festivities in New York, Chicago, and Boston also draw big crowds. Florida ranks high thanks to theme parks, beaches, and cruise ports. On the international side, Vancouver tops the list, followed by major European cities like Rome, Dublin, Paris, and London.

RANKING	DOMESTIC	INTERNATIONAL
1	SEATTLE, WA	VANCOUVER, CANADA
2	ORLANDO, FL	ROME, ITALY
3	ANCHORAGE, AK	DUBLIN, IRELAND
4	MIAMI, FL	PARIS, FRANCE
5	NEW YORK, NY	LONDON, ENGLAND
6	CHICAGO, IL	CALGARY, CANADA
7	FORT LAUDERDALE, FL	REYKJAVIK, ICELAND
8	FAIRBANKS, AK	AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS
9	DENVER, CO	ATHENS, GREECE
10	BOSTON, MA	BARCELONA, SPAIN

 

Summer Safety on the Road

July 4^th week can be especially dangerous on the road with more teen drivers behind the wheel and a rise in impaired driving due to holiday festivities. That’s why AAA is urging drivers to commit to 100 Days of Safe Driving this summer. According to AAA crash data analysis, nearly one in three summertime traffic deaths involves an impaired driver. AAA, in partnership with MADD, reminds anyone who plans to drink or use impairing substances to arrange a sober ride before going out.

Drivers preparing to take road trips should also prioritize car maintenance and stay on top of routine oil changes, plus check battery condition and tire pressure. Last year during Independence Day week, AAA responded to more than 687,000 roadside assistance calls. Half of those required towing services, and nearly 30% of those calls were for battery replacement and flat tires.

Once on the road, AAA reminds drivers to Slow Down, Move Over whenever there are emergency responders and stranded motorists on the side of the road. By reducing speed and changing lanes, drivers allow roadside workers to do their jobs safely and help prevent tragedies.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, says the second weekend of the holiday period will be the busiest on the roads, starting Thursday, July 2. But in certain metros, like Boston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, peak congestion is expected Saturday, June 27. Drivers looking to avoid the heaviest traffic should leave early in the day or consider traveling on Monday or Tuesday.

Please note the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

Best and Worst Times to Travel by Car
Date	Worst Travel Time	Best Travel Time
Saturday, Jun 27	12:00 PM – 5:00 PM	Before 10:00 AM
Sunday, Jun 28	2:00 PM – 4:00 PM	Before 11:00 AM
Monday, Jun 29	2:00 PM – 6:00 PM	Before 12:00 PM
Tuesday, Jun 30	3:00 PM – 6:00 PM	Before 2:00 PM
Wednesday, Jul 1	12:00 PM – 9:00 PM	Before 12:00 PM
Thursday, Jul 2	2:00 PM – 6:00 PM	Before 12:00 PM
Friday, Jul 3	12:00 PM – 7:00 PM	Before 11:00 AM
Saturday, Jul 4	10:00 AM – 2:00 PM	After 3:00 PM
Sunday, Jul 5	12:00 PM – 6:00 PM	Before 11:00 AM

SOURCE: INRIX

Independence Day Holiday Travel Period

AAA’s Independence Day holiday travel period spans nine days and includes two weekends. This year, the dates range from Saturday, June 27 to Sunday, July 5. Historically, this holiday period included only one weekend. The expanded travel window was instituted starting in 2024 with historical results calculated back to 2019 using the new nine-day period.

Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was finalized the week of May 18, 2026.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

INRIX Methodology

INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.

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