The Maryland Board of Revenue Estimates in a virtual, nonvoting meeting today received grim projections for significant shortfalls in the current and future fiscal years as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Andrew Schaufele, director of the Bureau of Revenue Estimates and the Board’s executive secretary, outlined two scenarios, both of which assume a vaccine exists by fall of 2021 and there is no second wave of the virus that causes an economic shutdown.
The more optimistic scenario is based upon Congress providing assistance to state and local governments and extending the Paycheck Protection Program to help small businesses keep employees on payroll, among other less severe economic assumptions.
In that scenario, Maryland would face a $925 million shortfall for fiscal 2020, a $2.1 billion gap for fiscal 2021 and a $2.6 billion hole for fiscal 2022.
The more dire scenario would see a $1.1 billion reduction in fiscal 2020, a $2.6 billion deficit in fiscal 2022 and a nearly $4 billion decline in fiscal 2022.
The projections are designed to serve as fiscal guidance to the Governor and General Assembly, and were not voted on by the Board of Revenue Estimates, which is made up of Comptroller Peter Franchot, Treasurer Nancy Kopp and Budget Secretary David Brinkley.